Defining Centrism

Political eggheads should read this article. It is an analysis of the American electorate that addresses the notion of the American center (of which I am a member). The main point of the article is to further stratify "independents" into three categories: independent leaning democrat, independent independent, and independent leaning republican. It turns out that over the last fifty years these "leaners" have been reliable votes for the side to which they lean. Therefore the true size and importance of the independent vote is grossly overstated. Looking at the last election, it is patently obvious that the "turnout the base" strategy worked better than the "appeal to the center" strategy.

Here's an interesting observation from the study:

Democratic-leaning independents are usually more partisan in their voting behavior than are weak Democrats. Or perhaps, on reflection, this is not so surprising after all. Remember, some components of the traditionally Democratic base, such as union members and blacks, tend to be socially conservative, while many college-educated independents turn up their noses at partisan labels but are consistently liberal in outlook.

As much as I'd like to claim membership in the ranks of the "true" independent," I think this is probably where I fit in.

The most salient point made in the article is about marketing, but justifies what, I think, all of us already know. All stripes of Republican are more brand loyal and ideologically aligned with the GOP than Dems are with their party. While the overall number of Dem and Dem leaners is greater than that of the GOP, the lack of message and ideological consistency among Dems reduces turnout...and loses elections. After six years, Bush, who rode into office as a "uniter," has shown to be a singular polarizer of the country and the world. It's hard to imagine what can unite Democrats if the Bushian ability to polarize has failed.