In the last few weeks or so, it's become clear that "THE SURGE" may not be all that McCain/Bush made it out to be. General Petraues may not be the genius everyone thought.
The real reduction in violence was supplied by you and I, the American taxpayer, in the form of bribes. We payed off Sadr for a cease-fire, we paid off the Sunni's to stop the civil war and oppose the Iraqi formed al-Qaeda, and we've paid zillions to the Iraqi government which runs the Badr Brigades (and is pretty much run by Iran) the other main militia in Iraq.
So, like an episode from the Sopranos, we must have missed a payoff this week and people got pissed. What kind of money is it going to take to make these people stop fighting? How long will our tax money be taxed by Iraqi militias? I don't think that quagmire has ever been as appropriate as now.
What to do? Keep bribing? It's fucked. Back out? That's fucked too. We're fucked ten ways till Tuesday. Our bumbling ignoramus president brought about our downfall, and it appears that we will elect his step-brother.
McCain's rhetoric is wrong (retreat, and all that), but his basic principle, in my opnion, is right: we started all this this shit, regardless of right or wrong, and if we back out it's going to be anarchy (and the British retreat in Basra will serve as the object lesson). Al-Qaeda is our enemy. They were not in Iraq before the war but they are now. The only reason Sunnis are opposing them now is because were paying bribes. If we, and our bribes, leave, then they have a new safe-haven. We can shift troops to Afghanistan, but then Al-Qaeda will just go to Iraq. We're fucked of our own doing.
Anyone have any good solutions?
I read something very interesting the other day about the Iraq conflict that expresses just how motherfucked we are. I believe it was said by shitass number one, Ahmed Chalabi, who probably had more to do with getting us into this mess than we realize. He said something along the lines of this: your best friend is allied with your enemy, and your enemy is allied with your best friend.
To translate: He said something along the lines of this: your best friend (elected shiite Maliki government) is allied with your enemy (Iran) , and your enemy (Al-Qaeda) is allied with your best friend (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt).